Click on the chart to enlarge.
Here is an intraday trade I took. I am finding that waiting on one pair is daunting as I have been trying to trade the GBPUSD to the short side and on the hourly chart, the pair keeps rising. So I looked over the most commonly traded pairs and looked at daily charts. On the blog posting before this one, the USDCAD was hitting an upper channel line. At http://www.ino.com/, the USD was down and gold was up. I saw this as a potential opportunity today.
The hourly chart was also in a downtrend so the daily and hourly chart correlated. I then used the 1-2-3 entry for a quick scalp trade. My entry was at 1.0682. I saw peak #1 of the 1-2-3 formation at 1.0724. Peak #2 is 1.0672. I set my entry point as a sell limit since I wanted entry near a Fibonacci retracement. Thirty minutes later it was entered. My entry was at 1.0682. The trade triggered and immediate stop loss and target as seen on the chart. An hour and 15 minutes later my trade was closed out for a profit at 1.0664.
It should be noted this trade now has me at a win/loss ratio of 2/2 so far. I am setting up my third trade dissertation and haven't finished with my analysis of the losing trade. When I complete that analysis, I will post it. So my next trade will determine whether I get to move to stage 2 or retry stage one.
The news for today is going to knock the USD around. In fact, the USD is getting hit hard 30 mins before the news on the GDP and unemployment news releases. I am putting up a few charts to keep an eye on.
| 6:30am | CAD | RMPI m/m | | |||||
 6:30am | CAD | IPPI m/m | | |||||
| 6:30am | USD | Advance GDP q/q | | |||||
| 6:30am | USD | Unemployment Claims | | |||||
| 6:30am | USD | Advance GDP Price Index q/q | | |||||
| 7:30am | USD | Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks | | |||||
| 8:30am | USD | Natural Gas Storage | | |||||
| 3:45pm | NZD | Building Consents m/m
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There are some factors in the news that will effect forex pairs today.
Click on the charts to enlarge them.
So I boiled down to a 5 min chart. I am wanting a quick move of 20-30 pips profit on this one. If you enlarge the chart above you will see that the pair has broken an uptrend line to the downside. Since the overall daily trend of the GBPUSD is down, I chose to take this trade on the short side. So the pair also broken through support as 1.6325 has shown to be a strong pivotal point as of late.
Piss me off though. I was on fxsolutions.com I cannot place a limit order within 10 pips of the current spot price!!!! Well, that just counted fxsolutions off as a contender for a broker. I am forced to put a market entry in at 1.6310 rather than where I wish to enter at 1.6320. Putting my stop loss at 1.6335 then. (25 pips) Target is 1.6292, 5 pips above previous low.
The chart above explains it all. I was stop lossed out at 1.6335 and subsequently have a 25 pip loss.
My analysis of the trade.
1. I traded when the markets were awaiting the Australian open and there was very little activity. Error #1
2. this is the second time that I have been burned on a 5 min chart. The first one was in class. Error #2 is using 5 min chart
3. I still believe that my analysis is accurate with the pair still being to the downside. For the past 2 days the USD has been up against other currencies especially the EURUSD and AUDUSD. If you look at the chart below, you will see my analysis on the daily chart. (click on the chart to enlarge it) One thing going against the short position is the fact that it is above the 55 day MA (which I am using due to Fib #s)
| Crude Oil 80.22 | -0.28 -0.35% | Gold 1053.54 | -1.99 -0.19% | CRB Index 280.44 | +0.10 +0.03% | US Dollar 75.379 | -0.096 -0.12% |
On the 1 hr. chart I am watching the 1.6325 area very closely. (click on the chart to enlarge.) If the triangle is broken to the downside, go short.
The image above is the daily chart of the GBPUSD. In class, we discussed how the pair seems to have rolled over and had a lower high and that is where I drew my channel line. I waited until the upper channel line was approached and that was Tuesday, October 21. I then drew my first trendline on the right side of the rise to the upper channel. When the rising trendline was breached on a close below, that was when I was to take a trade. On Wednesday, the pair broke above my channel line and I became dismayed. www.ino.com showed the USD weakening so there was more room to the upside. On Friday, the British GDP was worse than thought. That is where I stepped in to look at my initial entry near the channel line at 1.6490
This is a 1 hour chart of the pair. The current forex program I have does not allow for the trendlines to cross down to the lower time frame. I had to redraw them. Again, the 1.6490 line had resistance a few days ago and was breached to the upside. It then retraced to this level again and this is where is broke above the channel on the daily chart. After some consolidation on Thursday, the bad news came out and the GBPUSD dove. I have the horizontal line drawn near 1.6490 and an uptrend line transected the horizontal line near 1.6490. This big downdraft was good overall, but I was concerned about the large candle on the one hour.
So I boiled down to the 15 minute chart and took my entry at the 1.6490 level. I set my stop loss at 25 pips above my entry.
Target 1.6426. Reached in 2 hours.
