TRADE #2 OF STAGE 5: LONG USDCHF ALSO A COMPLETE FAILURE. 0 WINS, 2 LOSSES IN STAGE 5

Very similar to what is happening on the EURUSD is happening here. The USDCHF pair is in an uptrend and the stochastics are in an oversold area on the 4-hour chart. I am keeping my stop losses tight as I see minimal movement in the pair as it has been consolidating for the past few weeks. Click on the chart to see an explanation. UPDATE: This pair also failed me too. Here is the chart to show what happened. I learned that getting 3 wins a row is good and trying for a 4th may be asking a little too much.

1ST TRADE OF STAGE 5: SHORT EUR/USD. TOTAL FAILURE. ALL 5 CONTRACTS STOP LOSSED OUT. 0 WINS, 1 LOSS FOR STAGE 5

Here we go again. Shorting the EURUSD. During the training I had the instructor said we should learn one pair and trade that pair constantly. I guess this one is becoming my short. I am watching the EURUSD again and it is near the overbought area on the stochastics and since it is in a downtrend, this may be a ripe opportunity to short the pair again. So looking at the chart, you can see my other trades present on the chart too. When you click on the chart to enlarge it, note the reasons for me to short this pair again. 1. The pair is near the overbought area again on the stochastics. 2. The pair is still in a downtrend as noted by the down-sloping purple line and the candles are colored red. This is my manipulation of the chart and has nothing to do with the typical interpretation of candlesticks. (I may change the candlesticks to OHLC) 3. It is nearing the 200 4-hour moving average [white line] ( I guess that would make it the 800 hour moving average since 200 x 4 hours = 800) 4. 1.3725 may offer resistance based upon the high on 3.3.2010 UPDATE: Sorry this update is taking so long. Had a death in the family and I took a break from trading. Well the pair entered where I wanted to at 1.3720 but within 4 hours of entry I was stop lossed out at my 70 pip level. Here is the chart to show the effects.

TRADE #4 OF STAGE 4 COMPLETELY PROFITABLE: LONG USDCHF

My trading plan shows this pair to be in a position to go long. Click on the chart to the right to enlarge it and read the text. Reasons for entering the trade: 1. Pair is above the 55 DEMA and 200 DEMA on the daily chart 2. Pair is near the stochastic oversold area on the 4 hour chart. UPDATE: 3.4.2010 This trade was entered at the expected point as seen by this chart. (click on the chart to enlarge). As of this morning, the T1 was hit for a 38 pip profit. I am going to tighten my stop loss as I suspect the pair is consolidating. I will also follow the stochastics very closely. If and when the stochastic becomes overbought (>80) I will take profits and/or really tighten the stop losses. UPDATE: 3.5.2010 This trade also went completely my way. I used my revamped trading system to look for optimum set-ups based upon my parameters and what I learned from my losing trades in the first few stages. Since this trade is #4 in stage 4 I didn't necessarily need to take it since my first 3 trades of stage 4 were completely profitable. Wow, that makes my record for stage 4 at 4 wins and no losses. So here is how the trade worked out. I entered the trade in an area I felt would be honored based upon the overall consolidation for the past few days based upon the 4 hour chart and the fact that the stochastics was in the oversold area. I placed my Fibonacci retracements on the chart and picked out specific levels that I expected to be honored. My exit was going to be 70 pips below my entry and once profitable, I was going to take profits either at Fib levels or when the stochastics got into the overbought areas. Well, T1 and T2 areas were hit for a profit and I took my remaining two contracts when the stochastics was in oversold area. Here are the results: ENTRY: 1.0702 T1 HIT AT 1.0770 (68 PIP PROFIT, $680) T2 HIT AT 1.0810 (92 PIP PROFIT, $980) EXITED LAST TWO CONTRACTS DUE TO STOCHASTICS BEING OVERBOUGHT AT 1.0745 (43 PIP PROFIT EACH, SO 86 PIP PROFIT FOR $860) TOTAL PIPS PROFIT WAS 246 FOR A $2,460 PROFIT ON THIS TRADE.

TRADE #3 OF STAGE 4 ENTERED: SHORT EURUSD: T1, T2 & T3 HIT FOR PROFIT; TRADE WILL BE FULLY PROFITABLE

In my mind, I cannot believe that I am going to short the EURUSD again. My set up is coming up again and I have placed a sell limit order to short the pair. Here is the set up. 1. The pair is still below the 55 DEMA and the 200 DEMA on the daily chart. (not shown) 2. The pair is reaching the OB area on a slow stochastics on the 4 hour chart. (click on the pic to the right) 3. The downward trend line has still not been violated to the upside. (purple line) I want my short entry at 1.3685 and I am going to place a 70 pip stop loss once this is entered. I am going to set my targets tight because this pair has been consolidating for the past few days. The US dollar index is also in an overbought area based upon the stochastics so the USD may fall in value in the next few days leading to this pair rising. UPDATE: 3.3.2010 The pair was entered at 1.3685 as expected. I am keeping the profits tight as I don't see this pair making a huge move down. Why? The USD index is way overbought based upon the slow stochastics and that the EURUSD pair is way oversold on the daily chart. Basically this pair is in consolidation in the area so I hope I am catching a peak and riding the pair down. click on the chart to the right to see the targets for profit. UPDATE: 3.4.2010 The pair has hit my first target and I have moved my stop loss down to 1.3705 which is 20 pips above my entry. I am going to keep the stop loss tight as I expect the pair to be consolidating. Since the stochastic was in the overbought area on the 4 hour chart and the fact that the pair has been in a downtrend based upon the daily and 4 hour charts, this trade should be pretty safe. Again, consider that the USD index is in the overbought area too. So focus on this one, if the USD index is in oversold territory, that means there is a potential for the USD to fall back down to the oversold area on the stochastics. If the USD falls in price, the EURUSD will rise in price. Think of fractions: the EUR is the numerator, the USD is the denominator. If the denominator weakens, the fraction moves higher. UPDATE: 3.5.2010 The T2 AND T3 were hit overnight for a profit. On the four hour chart, the stochastics are near oversold, so I am going to tighten my stop loss down to 1.3655 so that I will make these 4 contracts totally profitable. I realize that this chart has too many lines on it, but I need these lines to determine my targets and what has happened to the pair since I entered my trade. I have also attached my 15 minute chart to look at the trade on a microscopic basis so that I can see my targets. NOTE THAT ON THIS CHART, I HAVE RECOLORED MY CANDLESTICKS TO CORRELATE TO MY NEW TRADING SYSTEM SO DON'T LOOK AT THE CANDLESTICKS ON THE BASES OF GREEN = UP AND RED = DOWN. THAT WOULD BE THE WRONG INTERPRETATION. JUST REALIZE THAT WHEN THE CANDLESTICKS ARE GREEN, THE BIAS IS TO THE UPSIDE AND WHEN THEY ARE RED, THE BIAS IS TO THE DOWNSIDE.