SHORT ENTERED USDCAD: TRADE #5 OF STAGE 3: CATASTROPHIC COMPUTER FAILURE. WAS NOT ABLE TO COMPLETE THE TRADE

There is a potential short trade on the USDCAD pair. There is resistance at 1.0700 based upon a high back in December, 2009. I am also looking at the Stochastics in the overbought area. I correlated that with the previous high in the pair back in Nov., 2009 where the Stochastic was in overbought area. As a correlative, GOLD is reaching an area of support around $1,050 which was a low in December, 2009 and resistance around $1,000 back in October, 2009. The second chart is the Gold ETF going by the symbol GLD which is 10% of the price of gold. GLD is currently sitting at $1,055. On the GLD chart, the Stochastics is also in the oversold territory. The support at $1,050 and Stochastics in oversold area are signs of a potential rise in the price of gold again.

UPDATE: 2/1/2010

The pair was entered at my target of 1.0698 and is currently positive. I am going to keep everything as is for now and see how the trade progresses.

UPDATE:

In the middle of this trade, I had my computer hardrive completely crash. I was unable to even turn the computer of an get any access to Tradestation. I called TS to see if I could call the trades in under simulation mode and since I was in simulation and not a real live trading account, they would not make any trade orders for me.

Now that I am up and running again, the trade is not on my new computer and I cannot assess this trade. I know I would have moved my stop loss into a profitable position, but I was not able to do so.

I am going to write to my coach and see if I can retrade my 5th trade or if I need to start all over in stage 3.

TRADE #4 OF STAGE 3; SHORT USDJPY: FAILURE! ALL 3 CONTRACTS STOP LOSSED OUT: STAGE 3 AT 2 WINS, 2 LOSSES

The 4 hour chart is showing a downtrend. As of note too, there appears to be a double top at 90.50. The stochastic is in the overbought area on the 4 hour chart. Click on the chart to the right to see what I mean. Here are the reasons for entering this trade to the short side: 1. 4 hour trend is downward 2. Resistance has been met twice at 90.50 3. Stochastic is in overbought area on BOTH 4 hour and 15 minute charts. T1 is going to be 89.26 T2 is going to be 89.02 T3 is going to be 88.52 which is where the bottom of the trend line is Stop loss at 90.72 Well this trade went sour and I was stop lossed out. The interesting aspect of looking at this chart is the gap seen on the 15 minute chart where I was stop lossed out. How does a gap show up in a market that trades 24 hours a day? That's a good question. I was under the impression that since the market trading 24 hours a day, there were no gaps except for Friday's close to Sunday's open. Hmmm. So anyway, this creates a 2 win, 2 loss stage 3. The next trade hinders on my win or loss on the trade. If I win the next trade, I get to go to stage 4. If I lose, it's start all over in stage 3. My post analysis of this trade will take a few days to figure out where this is heading. My set-up was spot on when comparing the 4 hour and 15 minutes charts where both Stochastics where in the overbought area on the charts and the 4 hour was in a downtrend. I noticed that had I used a first target of 25 pips like I should have used instead of relying upon the Fib extensions, I would have had at least one profitable contract. I didn't have my trading plan with me and I should have remembered that condition. I have added the daily chart to show my strategy and potential reason why this was a losing trade.

TRADE #3 OF STAGE 3; SHORT USDCHF: ENTER: ENTERED 1.27.2010: TRADE PROFITABLE WITH T1 AND T2 HIT.

I was looking around at all of the charts and noticed on the 4 hour chart of the USDCHF there appears to be some resistance at 1.0500. This goes back to 2009. Click on this first chart to see the text I am talking about. I am expecting the pair to trade in a range and potentially head back to the upside so I drew the support and resistance lines. I am going to keep my targets on the inside of these S/R lines using Fib retracements. UPDATE: 01.28.2010 The trade was profitable with T1 and T2 being hit despite T3 being taken out via a stop loss. Click on the chart to the right to see the text. When looking at the trade analysis, here is what happened. ENTRY: 1.0488 T1 hit for profit at 1.0472 (16 pip profit) T2 hit for profit at 1.04559 ( 32 pip profit) T3 out for stop loss at 1.0503 (-15 pips) Total 33 pip profit for this trade. This is smal compared to the pip profits from other trades that I had earlier, but those earlier trades occurred on a 4 hour chart when a forex pair was near resistance on trend lines. I expected a double top on this pair and range trading between 1.0500 and 1.0400 for a while but the USD cointues to strengthen.

TRADE #2 OF STAGE 3: SHORT GBPUSD: ENTERED ON 1.27.2010: T1 HIT; STOP LOSS OUT FOR T2 AND T3; LOSING TRADE. SCORE 1 WIN 1 LOSS FOR STAGE 3

I have chosen to go short on the GBPUSD pair. A few weeks ago, I attempted to go short near the top of the channel on a 4 hour chart and as you can see on the chart, it was near the top, but I chose the wrong time to go short. The pair is now near the bottom of the channel and I am taking a short trade until the channel line is hit and looking for a little bit of an extension beyond that. I am expecting that as the USDX continues to travel higher denoting a stronger US Dollar. If you click on the second chart, you can see the entry point. Here are my reasons for entering this short trade: 1. The USD continues to rise in value. This is denoted in the USDX at www.ino.com 2. The 4 hour chart still shows the GBPUSD pair to be in a downtrend albeit near the lower channel line which could preclude a bounce to the upside. 3. On the 15 minute chart the Slow Stochastics are in the overbought region and on the 4 hour chart, the pair is below the 200 day EMA. I chose to make these trades tight and we shall see how this pans out.

UPDATE: 01 28 2010 This was a losing trade. The GBP for some reason has gotten stronger than the USD and the pair rose after I shorted it. I suspect this is all profit taking as the pair is nearing support via a trendlline on a 4 hour chart. Here is how it panned out: ENTRY SHORT @ 1.6136 T1 hit at 1.6110 for 26 pip profit T2 and T2 out at 1.6166 for 30 pip loss each (so that means a 60 pip loss since there were 2 contracts) Total loss for this trade was 34 pips.

TRADE #2 OF STAGE 3: SHORT AUDUSD; NEVER ENTERED AS SELL LIMIT ORDER NEVER MET. STILL AWAITING ENTRY INTO TRADE 2 OF STAGE 3

Here is the AUDUSD pair. I am watching a downtrend move based upon the 4 hour chart and the fact that the pair has been in a downtrend since mid-December. Looking at the chart there is a strong downtrend and I see an intermediate downtrend within the major. Click on this chart to enlarge it and see what I mean. When looking at the second chart, which is the 15 minute chart, you can see my entry I want to achieve and where my targets are. Normally, I place my Fibonacci extensions on a 4 hour chart, but I am looking for a real quick entry in a major downtrend. Since I cannot predict bottoms, I am going to keep this one tight within the most recent range.

UPDATE: 01.27.2010

The trade was never entered as it didn't come back up to my sell limit order. This is frustrating. Click on picture to see what I have written.

01.14.2010: POSSIBLE LONG IN USDJPY PAIR; TRADE NEVER ENTERED. I ENTERED THE ORDER FOR DAY ONLY, NOT GTC

I looked at the USD index and it shows that the USD is coming back into an area of support around $76.00. Then looking at a correlative, the USDJPY may be reaching support, too. Click on the chart to the right to enlarge it and look at the setup. My set-up for this trade is going to be as follows: Entry: 90.55 Stop loss: 89.85 (70 pips) T1: 91.8 near 38.2% Fib retracement (as seen on the second chart) T2: 92.50 near the 61.8% Fib retracement T3: 94.50 which is near the 127% Fib extension I am not too happy. I did not have a GOOD TIL CANCELED order when I placed this order. I would have entered the trade and as of now it would have been in positive trade as of now. (1/19/10) . Lesson learned: Use limit orders, but make sure you have a good til canceled order or good til day order.

01.14.2010: POSSIBLE SHORT TRADE GBPUSD; TRADE ENTERED. STOP LOSS OUT; TRADE 1 OF STAGE 3 IS A FAILURE (SCORE: NO WINS, 1 LOSS)

The GBPUSD pair is hugging the inside of a channel. Since we are in a 4 hour uptrend with a recent higher low, I drew a trendline off these two points and created a parallel line off the lows. After moving the line up to the high after the lowest-low, it shows the pair as being near the upper end of the channel. I would expect a retracement to those areas. I am going to set my entry a few pips outside of the channel at 1.6368. My stop loss will be 70 pips above this at 1.6438. I am setting my stop losses at the 50%, 61.8% and the 100% Fib retracement lines. The 100% Fib is at the bottom of the channel so I don't know if I can get the full profit out of this one if it takes a few days. Well, the trade did not go my way. I added this chart to get the idea as to why this trade did not succeed. Click on the chart and look at the text on the chart to see how the trend lines were drawn.

FOREX CALENDAR FOR 01.12.2010

I was looking to see if there was any news on the forex calendar that was going to change the way I was going to trade. Thursday seems to have an early morning Unemployment data release at 08:30 EST. Friday at 08:30 will give us a Core CPI report. These may give wide swings in the EURUSD pair that I am looking to trade. As I was also relooking at the countertrend trade in the EURUSD pair that I was following, it dawned on me later - why am I not going short on this position since the daily trend is down and the EURUSD pair is now below its 55 day EMA on the 15 minute chart? Well, a couple of answers come to mind: 1. The 4-hour chart is in a short-term uptrend. 2. I should be going short based upon the daily chart. Hmmm. Food for thought.

01/12/2010 POTENTIAL LONG IN THE EURUSD, 01.14.2010 ABANDONING THIS TRADE SINCE AREA HAS NOT BEEN HIT.

I am staring at the EURUSD pair and seeing that there is a potential countertrend trade setting up. On the daily chart, I see the EURUSD pair is below the 55 day EMA which tells me that the pair is in a down trend. However, looking at the recent moves in the past few days, there have been higher lows and a higher high. Placing a Fibonacci retracement on the chart shows a possible retracement back to the 50% Fib retracement which happens to be right near the 55 day EMA. I want to make this a countertrend trade by going long. After boiling down to a 4 hour chart, I placed more Fibs on it to see what would be a good entry point. 1.4410 is right in between Fib retracements on the daily as well as the 4 hour chart so I am going to place me entry near 1.4410. My stop loss is going to be 1.4340, or 70 pips below my entry. I am going to set my T1, T2 and T3 based upon my 4 hour chart and you can read the text on that chart by clicking on the chart to the right to enlarge it. The reason why I want to enter this trade is: 1. The USD index had made a strong move to the upside and above its 50 day MA and is retacing now. I expect it to retrace near $76. I believe this is correlative with what I am seeing on the EURUSD pair. If the USD weakens, the EURUSD pair with rise. (i.e. it is as if the denominator is getting smaller/weaker) 2. I have seen higher lows and a higher high in the past few days on the EURUSD. 3. I am relying upon a Fib retracement on the daily chart near 1.4428 and on the 4-hour chart at 1.4409. UPDATE: 01.14.2010 I was never filled in on this trade and by the looks of the chart, I am not going to enter it as I have seen the EURUSD pair move back into the channel line with very little conviction. Here is the chart to see what has occurred.

OUTLOOK FOR 01/11/2010

I am looking for new trades as I am not in any at the current moment. The EURUSD, GBPUSD are in a a range-bound pattern on the 4 hour chart so I don't know when the market will return to a trending market. I looked at the USDX (USD index) to see what is going on and here is the chart to the right. The USDX hit a low just above $74 and bounced above the 50 day MA. The possibility of the pair retracing to a level of support is most likely. If that doesn't hold, I suspect the 50 day MA will act as secondary support. As of early trading on Sunday, the USD is getting hammered so this coincides with the possible retracement with the USD. So my plan for the week is to watch the USDX and see what it will do.