Click on the chart to the right to see what I mean.
Here are the reasons for entering this trade to the short side:
1. 4 hour trend is downward
2. Resistance has been met twice at 90.50
3. Stochastic is in overbought area on BOTH 4 hour and 15 minute charts.
T1 is going to be 89.26
T2 is going to be 89.02
T3 is going to be 88.52 which is where the bottom of the trend line is
Stop loss at 90.72
Well this trade went sour and I was stop lossed out. The interesting aspect of looking at this chart is the gap seen on the
15 minute chart where I was stop lossed out. How does a gap show up in a market that trades 24 hours a day? That's a good question. I was under the impression that since the market trading 24 hours a day, there were no gaps except for Friday's close to Sunday's open. Hmmm. So anyway, this creates a 2 win, 2 loss stage 3. The next trade hinders on my win or loss on the trade. If I win the next trade, I get to go to stage 4. If I lose, it's start all over in stage 3.
My post analysis of this trade will take a few days to figure out where this is heading. My set-up was spot on when comparing the 4 hour and 15 minutes charts where both Stochastics where in the overbought area on the charts and the 4 hour was in a downtrend. I noticed that had I used a first target of 25 pips like I should have used instead of relying upon the Fib extensions, I would have had at least one profitable contract. I didn't have my trading plan with me and I should have remembered that condition. I have added the daily chart to show my strategy and potential reason why this was a losing trade.
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