Monday, December 7, 2009

TRADE #1 OF STAGE 2: SELLING EURUSD

I am seeing the USD strengthen in the past few days as noted by multiple forex pairs, most notably the USDJPY pair and the USDCHF. The strength of the USD was also noted in the EURUSD. Looking at the daily chart, it is in a countertrend move to the downside and the 1.4720 mark may offer some support based upon some highs in late 2008. (Click on the chart to see the daily chart.) Boiling down further, I looked into the 4 hour chart. The four hour chart is definitely the chart I want to see for my entry into the 15 min chart. As you can see in the 4 hour chart, it is in a downtrend which is in the same vein as the countertrend move on the daily chart. Right now as of this posting, the pair is sitting near the 76.4% retracement based upon the 4 hour chart. I would have much more preferred an entry near the 61.8% retracement, but I still like this entry. I will set my stop loss based upon the 4 hour chart at 1.4872. My targets are: T1 - 1.4754 which is the expected move to the previous low (or in essence the 100% Fib move) T2 - 1.4654 which is a few pips above the 127% move. T3 - 1.4502 which sits at the 167% move of the Fib based upon the 4 hour chart. The final chart is the 15 minute chart for my entry. As you can see it is in the final stages of a triangle and I suspect it will continue its downside move. I set my stop loss a few pips above the latest low although in my mind I am telling myself I should set the stop loss at 1.4902. The circle denotes my entry point and I have written into the chart my stop loss point and 3 targets. Let's see how this pans out.

No comments:

Post a Comment