TRADE #5 OF STAGE 2: SHORT THE USDJPY: FAILURE. STATUS WILL BE 3 WINS, 2 LOSSES FOR STAGE 2

I am watching a possible double top on the USDJPY based upon the chart attached.

Here is my logic and reasoning.

1. When looking at the USDX, it appears as if it is going to meet an area of a little resistance around $78 as noted in the blog from 12.18.2009

2. The four hour chart shows a resistance line and I expect a short term double top due to reason #1.

I placed my entry near the resistance line at 90.59 and a stop loss above the resistance line at 91.02. This price is also a few pips above the most recent high which should be respected in a double top.

My T1 is sitting at the 38.2% Fib retracement from 12.9.2009 until the most recent high. My T2 is at the 61.8% retracement of the same move.

Again, I have come to the resolution that the two time frame analysis is what is going to work best. I am going to avoid noting the daily chart in the analysis. Thus, my HTF is the 4 hour chart and my entry on the LTF was the 15 min chart.

UPDATE: This trade was a loser, but my loss was only 43 pips. Still doesn't compare to my 145 pip profit on the GBPUSD.

Post analysis, it is noted that the double top didn't hold and the USD was strong enough to push the pair above 91.00. Trade was worth the risk. Nothing really learned except it was a proper entry and proper stop loss.